Unclassified · NSE: VBL
Varun Beverages share analysis
Fair value, business quality, the case for and against, and the risks — computed by VestCall from reported data, updated 14 October 2026.
Varun Beverages in one paragraph
Varun Beverages (NSE: VBL) was trading at ₹440.65 on 14 October 2026. VestCall scores its business health 67/100 (healthy). On valuation, the price sits in the “Valuation Premium” zone (₹428.5 and above) — above the modelled fair-value range. This is a reading of the evidence, not a buy or sell recommendation.
- Share price₹440.65
- Business health67/100
- Growth76/100
- Financial strength53/100
- Valuation88/100 · Fair
- Valuation zoneValuation Premium
- RiskHigh
Is Varun Beverages overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹440.65, Varun Beverages sits in VestCall’s “Valuation Premium” zone (₹428.5 and above): above the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 88/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
| Valuation zone | Price band | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Deeply Discounted | ₹364.95 – ₹396.2 | Furthest below the modelled fair-value range |
| Attractive Valuation | ₹396.2 – ₹412.24 | Below the modelled fair-value range |
| Fairly Valued | ₹412.24 – ₹428.5 | Inside the modelled fair-value range |
| Valuation Premium (current) | ₹428.5 and above | Above the modelled fair-value range |
The case for and against Varun Beverages
What supports the case
- Shareholding Quality · 87/100.
- Capital Allocation · 81/100.
- Business Quality · 69/100.
- Management Stability · 67/100.
- Growth · 61/100.
What needs proof
- Financial Strength · 53/100.
Varun Beverages key ratios
| Ratio | Varun Beverages | Unclassified median |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.19x | — |
| P/B | 2.67x | — |
| P/S | 2.27x | — |
| Return on equity (ROE) | 16.3% | — |
| Return on capital employed (ROCE) | 21.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 18.2% | — |
| Net margin | 13.9% | — |
| Current ratio | 3.99x | — |
Varun Beverages growth
Growth scores 76/100, with a stable trend, measured Dec 2022 to Dec 2025.
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | 18.6% |
| Net profit CAGR | 25.5% |
| EPS CAGR | -8.0% |
| Revenue growth, latest year | 9.5% |
| Profit growth, latest year | 16.2% |
Varun Beverages bull, base and bear case
Modelled annual return under three sets of stated assumptions over 5 years. These are model outputs, not a forecast or a promise of return.
| Scenario | Modelled CAGR | Weight | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | +2.5% | 21% | Growth decelerates to 6.5% and the multiple de-rates toward the cohort's trough. |
| Base | +18.1% | 53% | Earnings compound near the measured 18.1% and the multiple drifts toward its quality-adjusted warranted level. |
| Bull | +28.9% | 26% | Growth holds at 25.4% and the market pays the full premium the measured quality supports. |
Risks to watch in Varun Beverages
| Review trigger | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity falls below the quality floor | 16.32% | below 15% | high · armed |
| Revenue growth falls below the thesis floor | 18.59% | below 8% | high · armed |
| Promoter holding drops materially | 59.43% | below 56.43%, 3 points under the Jun 2026 filing | high · armed |
| Price runs more than two sigma above its own trend | 440.65 | at or above 730.76 | medium · armed |
| Drawdown from the 52-week high exceeds tolerance | 19.01% | at or beyond 25% | low · armed |
| Leverage doubles from the level underwritten today | No leverage line in the balance sheet | unavailable | high · unmeasurable |
| Promoter pledge rises above tolerance | No pledge disclosed (the NSE filing for VBL could not be read either (nse_session_unavailable)) | above 10% | high · unmeasurable |
| Valuation reaches the top of its own cohort | No cohort multiple to rank against | at or above the 95th percentile | medium · unmeasurable |
An armed trigger is watched and has not fired; a breached one has.
How Varun Beverages shares have traded
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| 52-week range | ₹382.2 – ₹544.05 |
| Distance from 52-week high | −19.0% |
| Return, 3 months | −6.3% |
| Return, 12 months | +0.4% |
| Trend | Downtrend |
| Annualised volatility | 32.3% |
| Deepest drawdown, 2 years | −43.3% |
Questions about Varun Beverages shares
Is Varun Beverages overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹440.65, Varun Beverages sits in VestCall’s “Valuation Premium” zone (₹428.5 and above): above the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 88/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
Is Varun Beverages fundamentally strong?
VestCall scores Varun Beverages’s business health 67/100 (healthy). The strongest measured pillars are shareholding quality and capital allocation. The ones that need proof are financial strength. Each pillar is computed from reported financials, and a pillar whose inputs were not reported is excluded rather than scored as zero.
What is Varun Beverages’s P/E ratio?
Varun Beverages trades at a P/E of 18.19x, on VestCall’s latest read. A multiple only means something against the business it buys: the quality-adjusted fair value on this page weighs it against Varun Beverages’s returns and growth.
What are the risks of investing in Varun Beverages?
The review triggers VestCall watches for Varun Beverages are: return on equity falls below the quality floor (roe below 15%); revenue growth falls below the thesis floor (revenue cagr below 8%); promoter holding drops materially (promoter holding below 56.43%, 3 points under the Jun 2026 filing). On the fundamentals, financial strength is the weakest measured pillar at 53/100. A trigger is a named condition that would change the reading, published so the case against the stock is as visible as the case for it.
Is this a recommendation to buy or sell Varun Beverages?
No. VestCall states where Varun Beverages’s price sits against modelled value, what supports the case and what would break it, with every figure sourced. It does not issue buy, sell or hold calls or price targets. Vestmind is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst, and nothing on this page is personalised investment advice.
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