Unclassified · NSE: HAL
Hindustan Aeronautics share analysis
Fair value, business quality, the case for and against, and the risks — computed by VestCall from reported data, updated 14 October 2026.
Hindustan Aeronautics in one paragraph
Hindustan Aeronautics (NSE: HAL) was trading at ₹4,901.7 on 14 October 2026. VestCall scores its business health 75/100 (healthy). On valuation, the price sits in the “Fairly Valued” zone (₹4,735.58 – ₹4,935) — inside the modelled fair-value range. This is a reading of the evidence, not a buy or sell recommendation.
- Share price₹4,901.7
- Business health75/100
- Growth74/100
- Financial strength68/100
- Valuation15/100 · Fair
- Valuation zoneFairly Valued
- RiskHigh
Is Hindustan Aeronautics overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹4,901.7, Hindustan Aeronautics sits in VestCall’s “Fairly Valued” zone (₹4,735.58 – ₹4,935): inside the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 15/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
| Valuation zone | Price band | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Deeply Discounted | ₹4,135.22 – ₹4,515.52 | Furthest below the modelled fair-value range |
| Attractive Valuation | ₹4,515.52 – ₹4,735.58 | Below the modelled fair-value range |
| Fairly Valued (current) | ₹4,735.58 – ₹4,935 | Inside the modelled fair-value range |
| Valuation Premium | ₹4,935 and above | Above the modelled fair-value range |
The case for and against Hindustan Aeronautics
What supports the case
- Capital Allocation · 100/100.
- Business Quality · 94/100.
- Shareholding Quality · 78/100.
- Financial Strength · 68/100.
- Management Stability · 67/100.
What needs proof
- Growth · 58/100.
Hindustan Aeronautics key ratios
| Ratio | Hindustan Aeronautics | Unclassified median |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.03x | — |
| P/B | 1.22x | — |
| P/S | 1.36x | — |
| Return on equity (ROE) | 22.3% | — |
| Return on capital employed (ROCE) | 29.7% | — |
| Operating margin | 33.0% | — |
| Net margin | 24.8% | — |
| Current ratio | 2.61x | — |
Hindustan Aeronautics growth
Growth scores 74/100, with a positive trend, measured Mar 2023 to Mar 2026.
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | 8.8% |
| Net profit CAGR | 16.1% |
| EPS CAGR | 16.1% |
| Revenue growth, latest year | 9.7% |
| Profit growth, latest year | 9.0% |
Hindustan Aeronautics bull, base and bear case
Modelled annual return under three sets of stated assumptions over 5 years. These are model outputs, not a forecast or a promise of return.
| Scenario | Modelled CAGR | Weight | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | +1.0% | 22% | Growth decelerates to 5% and the multiple de-rates toward the cohort's trough. |
| Base | +14.0% | 53% | Earnings compound near the measured 14% and the multiple drifts toward its quality-adjusted warranted level. |
| Bull | +23.0% | 25% | Growth holds at 19.5% and the market pays the full premium the measured quality supports. |
Risks to watch in Hindustan Aeronautics
| Review trigger | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity falls below the quality floor | 22.31% | below 15% | high · armed |
| Revenue growth falls below the thesis floor | 8.76% | below 8% | high · armed |
| Promoter holding drops materially | 71.64% | below 68.64%, 3 points under the Mar 2026 filing | high · armed |
| Price runs more than two sigma above its own trend | 4901.7 | at or above 7145.16 | medium · armed |
| Drawdown from the 52-week high exceeds tolerance | 3.87% | at or beyond 25% | low · armed |
| Leverage doubles from the level underwritten today | No leverage line in the balance sheet | unavailable | high · unmeasurable |
| Promoter pledge rises above tolerance | No pledge disclosed (the NSE filing for HAL could not be read either (nse_session_unavailable)) | above 10% | high · unmeasurable |
| Valuation reaches the top of its own cohort | No cohort multiple to rank against | at or above the 95th percentile | medium · unmeasurable |
An armed trigger is watched and has not fired; a breached one has.
How Hindustan Aeronautics shares have traded
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| 52-week range | ₹3,487.2 – ₹5,099 |
| Distance from 52-week high | −3.9% |
| Return, 3 months | +10.3% |
| Return, 12 months | +1.2% |
| Trend | Uptrend |
| Annualised volatility | 34.5% |
| Deepest drawdown, 2 years | −45.1% |
Questions about Hindustan Aeronautics shares
Is Hindustan Aeronautics overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹4,901.7, Hindustan Aeronautics sits in VestCall’s “Fairly Valued” zone (₹4,735.58 – ₹4,935): inside the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 15/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
Is Hindustan Aeronautics fundamentally strong?
VestCall scores Hindustan Aeronautics’s business health 75/100 (healthy). The strongest measured pillars are capital allocation and business quality. The ones that need proof are growth. Each pillar is computed from reported financials, and a pillar whose inputs were not reported is excluded rather than scored as zero.
What is Hindustan Aeronautics’s P/E ratio?
Hindustan Aeronautics trades at a P/E of 33.03x, on VestCall’s latest read. A multiple only means something against the business it buys: the quality-adjusted fair value on this page weighs it against Hindustan Aeronautics’s returns and growth.
What are the risks of investing in Hindustan Aeronautics?
The review triggers VestCall watches for Hindustan Aeronautics are: return on equity falls below the quality floor (roe below 15%); revenue growth falls below the thesis floor (revenue cagr below 8%); promoter holding drops materially (promoter holding below 68.64%, 3 points under the Mar 2026 filing). On the fundamentals, growth is the weakest measured pillar at 58/100. A trigger is a named condition that would change the reading, published so the case against the stock is as visible as the case for it.
Is this a recommendation to buy or sell Hindustan Aeronautics?
No. VestCall states where Hindustan Aeronautics’s price sits against modelled value, what supports the case and what would break it, with every figure sourced. It does not issue buy, sell or hold calls or price targets. Vestmind is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst, and nothing on this page is personalised investment advice.
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