Unclassified · NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO
Bajaj Auto share analysis
Fair value, business quality, the case for and against, and the risks — computed by VestCall from reported data, updated 14 October 2026.
Bajaj Auto in one paragraph
Bajaj Auto (NSE: BAJAJ-AUTO) was trading at ₹10,343 on 14 October 2026. VestCall scores its business health 83/100 (strong). On valuation, the price sits in the “Valuation Premium” zone (₹9,908.2 and above) — above the modelled fair-value range. This is a reading of the evidence, not a buy or sell recommendation.
- Share price₹10,343
- Business health83/100
- Growth81/100
- Financial strength72/100
- Valuation18/100 · Fair
- Valuation zoneValuation Premium
- RiskMedium
Is Bajaj Auto overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹10,343, Bajaj Auto sits in VestCall’s “Valuation Premium” zone (₹9,908.2 and above): above the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 18/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
| Valuation zone | Price band | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Deeply Discounted | ₹8,805.41 – ₹9,396.66 | Furthest below the modelled fair-value range |
| Attractive Valuation | ₹9,396.66 – ₹9,605.99 | Below the modelled fair-value range |
| Fairly Valued | ₹9,605.99 – ₹9,908.2 | Inside the modelled fair-value range |
| Valuation Premium (current) | ₹9,908.2 and above | Above the modelled fair-value range |
The case for and against Bajaj Auto
What supports the case
- Capital Allocation · 100/100.
- Business Quality · 91/100.
- Growth · 86/100.
- Shareholding Quality · 75/100.
- Financial Strength · 72/100.
- Management Stability · 67/100.
What needs proof
No measured pillar is currently below the strong range.
Bajaj Auto key ratios
| Ratio | Bajaj Auto | Unclassified median |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.44x | — |
| P/B | 1.43x | — |
| P/S | 0.77x | — |
| Return on equity (ROE) | 30.2% | — |
| Return on capital employed (ROCE) | 39.9% | — |
| Operating margin | 21.4% | — |
| Net margin | 16.2% | — |
| Current ratio | 1.71x | — |
Bajaj Auto growth
Growth scores 81/100, with a positive trend, measured Mar 2023 to Mar 2026.
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR | 20.0% |
| Net profit CAGR | 20.4% |
| EPS CAGR | 21.9% |
| Revenue growth, latest year | 24.1% |
| Profit growth, latest year | 44.4% |
Bajaj Auto bull, base and bear case
Modelled annual return under three sets of stated assumptions over 5 years. These are model outputs, not a forecast or a promise of return.
| Scenario | Modelled CAGR | Weight | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | +2.2% | 21% | Growth decelerates to 6.2% and the multiple de-rates toward the cohort's trough. |
| Base | +17.3% | 53% | Earnings compound near the measured 17.3% and the multiple drifts toward its quality-adjusted warranted level. |
| Bull | +27.6% | 26% | Growth holds at 24.1% and the market pays the full premium the measured quality supports. |
Risks to watch in Bajaj Auto
| Review trigger | Current | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Return on equity falls below the quality floor | 30.23% | below 15% | high · armed |
| Revenue growth falls below the thesis floor | 20.02% | below 8% | high · armed |
| Promoter holding drops materially | 55.01% | below 52.01%, 3 points under the Mar 2026 filing | high · armed |
| Price runs more than two sigma above its own trend | 10343 | at or above 14938.56 | medium · armed |
| Drawdown from the 52-week high exceeds tolerance | 16.33% | at or beyond 25% | low · armed |
| Leverage doubles from the level underwritten today | No leverage line in the balance sheet | unavailable | high · unmeasurable |
| Promoter pledge rises above tolerance | No pledge disclosed (the NSE filing for BAJAJ-AUTO could not be read either (nse_session_unavailable)) | above 10% | high · unmeasurable |
| Valuation reaches the top of its own cohort | No cohort multiple to rank against | at or above the 95th percentile | medium · unmeasurable |
An armed trigger is watched and has not fired; a breached one has.
How Bajaj Auto shares have traded
| Measure | Reading |
|---|---|
| 52-week range | ₹8,720.5 – ₹12,361 |
| Distance from 52-week high | −16.3% |
| Return, 3 months | +1.7% |
| Return, 12 months | +17.6% |
| Trend | Uptrend |
| Annualised volatility | 25.8% |
| Deepest drawdown, 2 years | −42.3% |
Questions about Bajaj Auto shares
Is Bajaj Auto overvalued or undervalued?
At ₹10,343, Bajaj Auto sits in VestCall’s “Valuation Premium” zone (₹9,908.2 and above): above the modelled fair-value range. Its valuation scores 18/100 (fair) against Unclassified peers. Zones describe where the price sits against modelled value; they are not an instruction to buy or sell.
Is Bajaj Auto fundamentally strong?
VestCall scores Bajaj Auto’s business health 83/100 (strong). The strongest measured pillars are capital allocation and business quality. Each pillar is computed from reported financials, and a pillar whose inputs were not reported is excluded rather than scored as zero.
What is Bajaj Auto’s P/E ratio?
Bajaj Auto trades at a P/E of 21.44x, on VestCall’s latest read. A multiple only means something against the business it buys: the quality-adjusted fair value on this page weighs it against Bajaj Auto’s returns and growth.
What are the risks of investing in Bajaj Auto?
The review triggers VestCall watches for Bajaj Auto are: return on equity falls below the quality floor (roe below 15%); revenue growth falls below the thesis floor (revenue cagr below 8%); promoter holding drops materially (promoter holding below 52.01%, 3 points under the Mar 2026 filing). A trigger is a named condition that would change the reading, published so the case against the stock is as visible as the case for it.
Is this a recommendation to buy or sell Bajaj Auto?
No. VestCall states where Bajaj Auto’s price sits against modelled value, what supports the case and what would break it, with every figure sourced. It does not issue buy, sell or hold calls or price targets. Vestmind is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst, and nothing on this page is personalised investment advice.
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